Snow Update (Friday Night)

TOLEDO, Ohio (13abc Action News) - 11pm Update - Friday 1/12/18

Snow has ended for most of the area. With that said, snow continues for the next few hours for Hancock, Seneca, Huron, Wyandot and Erie Counties. Parts of Erie and Huron Counties could see over 4" of total snow once the snow finally ends. The rest of the area ended up with 1"-4" after a bit of freezing rain and sleet this morning.

Cold air is the headline for the weekend. Stay warm.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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7:00pm Update - Friday 1/12/18

Accumulating snow has ended west of I-75. Snow will be ending east of I-75 over the next 1-2 hours.

Watch out for blowing and drifting snow tonight into Saturday with north winds ranging from 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will also add a chill to the air with wind chills going sub-zero tonight and for the weekend.

Have a safe night and weekend. Allow extra time for travel if you have plans to hit the roads.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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4:00pm Update - Friday 1/12/18

After morning rain, late morning mix and light snow showers throughout the day...the snow if finally picking up at this hour.

Visibilities have dropped below one mile in many locations. The snow will be ending at these times:

West - 4-5pm
Near I-75 - 5-7pm
East - 7-9pm

Temperatures are in the 20s now, so whatever snow falls will be sticking to the ground and making untreated surfaces slick. North winds of 15-25 mph will also produce some blowing and drifting snow (especially on west-east roadways).

Additional snow accumulations of 1-3" are possible this afternoon and evening. This puts most areas in that 1"-4" range with 4"+ possible in Seneca, Huron, Wyandot and Erie Counties.

Please join us at 5pm for the latest on the wintry weather and a look at a frigid weekend.

Happy Friday!

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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Friday 1/12/18 - 2pm Update

Rain, freezing rain, and sleet has switched over to snow across the area. The heaviest remains south and east of Toledo. Light snow is falling along and northwest of US 24. Snow will end between 4pm and 8pm from west to east. The main concern tonight will be the cold with lows dropping into the upper single digits and lower teens.The wind chill will drop to -5 to -10 degrees by Saturday morning. Sunday will be dry, before more snow arrives on Monday. -Meteorologist Ross Ellet
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Friday 1/12/18 - 7am Update

The forecast details have not changed much overnight. Rain is changing over to freezing rain, sleet, and snow right now. Once the snow starts falling between 8am and 10am, it will be heavy. Road conditions are expected to deteriorate quickly through out the morning as heavy snow and cold weather moves into the area. Light snow is expected this afternoon into early evening east of Toledo.

A thin glaze of ice (about 0.05") is expected before sleet and snow starts to fall across the area. Another 1-4" of snow is expected in most spots with higher totals across the eastern part of the area. The specific snow forecast is in the graphic above. -Meteorologist Ross Ellet
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Thursday 1/11/18 - 11pm Update

No significant changes to our forecast late this evening. The new computer models are fairly similar to what came in a few hours ago. If there is a change, it would be to speed up the transition from a mix to snow and have the snow end in the evening just a little before what was projected.

School delays and closings are already rolling into the newsroom in anticipation for the incoming weather.

Overnight rain will become that dreaded wintry mix in the mid-morning and then all snow late in the morning. The snow should begin to move out in the evening. North winds will range from 15-30 mph.

13abc Action News is back on the air beginning at 4:30am with the latest on the messy weather as it gets closer and closer to NW Ohio and SE Michigan.

Good night.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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Thursday 1/11/18 - 7pm Update

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES* go into effect for the entire area Friday morning and will continue into late Friday evening.

Overnight rain is still expected to become a nasty mix of freezing rain and sleet around 6am in the west, 8am-9am near Toledo and just before noon for the eastern quarter of the area. Up to 0.1" of ice is possible. Unlike Wednesday, temperatures will be falling below freezing and staying there. There will be no natural melting Friday (and into next week).

The wintry mix will then transition into all snow late in the morning in the west, by noon in Toledo and in the early afternoon in the east. The snow will continue in most areas through the day and into the evening. Finally ending Friday night on the eastern edge of our region.

Snow totals will vary, but on average 1"-4" of snow can be expected. Notice the higher totals on the map for the southeast corner of the viewing area.

Cold and dry for the weekend with highs in the upper teens.

Join us at 11pm on 13abc for a live update.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE:

From meteorologist Ben Cathey, the storm is over the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas as of Thursday morning at 5:00 a.m. The storm will impact northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan almost exclusively on Friday.

From the 50s to the 20s in a matter of hours, that creates a recipe for a wintry mix of sleet and worse, freezing rain. Sleet starts around 5:00 a.m. along the Ohio/Indiana state line. That then progress into freezing rain near the Interstate 75 area around dawn (which is at 8:00 a.m.). Even with ice accumulation of 1/10", that's enough to create serious concern for later commuters. That freezing rain advances east by late morning, with slick roads still a problem at noon, especially in Ottawa, Sandusky, and Erie Counties.

Freezing rain turns into accumulating snow by the early afternoon in Toledo. Toledo should get 1-3 inches of snow, with a quick increase in snow near Sandusky and Norwalk, down to Mansfield.

Ice is the number one concern for most, followed by snow. If you travel south or farther east, you will run into that heavier band of snow.

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11:30pm Wednesday 1/10 Update

Computer models appear to be coming into better agreement tonight. The latest data continues the trend from earlier today that showed the storm speeding up as it moves our way. The wintry mix and snow will fall on Friday, leaving Saturday dry and very cold.

Spring-like weather first...Thursday will be very warm and breezy with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of a few light showers with steadier rain arriving late in the evening.

We'll see the rain transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet between 6am-9am Friday, and then to mainly snow by the early afternoon for the eastern half of the area. Temperatures will begin in the 50s at midnight and fall near freezing by 8am and then keep falling into the 20s the rest of the day.

Snow totals have been posted above (see graphic). These are our initial snow totals and still may need to be adjusted as we progress through the next two days. The path of the storm is still not set in stone, but we have enough confidence tonight to give you a first look at what to expect.

Again, thank you for your patience this week with allowing the forecasting process to play out. The 13abc First Warning Storm Team will continue to dig through the computer models over the next two days to give you an accurate and useful forecast.

Good night.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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7pm Wednesday 1/10 Update:

The changes from this morning's update:
1) The storm is speeding up
2) Models are split on Saturday Snow
3) Friday may be the tougher travel day

The latest weather data suggests that the area will be right on the western edge of some heavy snow Friday into Saturday. All areas in NW Ohio and SE Michigan can expect a nasty mix of sleet, freezing rain and rain Friday morning. The precipitation will become all snow in the afternoon with accumulations likely by Friday evening.

It's still just a bit too early to give specific numbers, but the above map gives you an idea of who will see the heavier snow and who will see the lighter snow.

One thing with this storm is the tight "gradient" on snow totals. Model data is showing a very sharp cut-off from very heavy snow to basically no snow...and this is either in or very close to our area. Just a 30-60 mile shift in the expected track of this storm could adjust snow totals by several inches. We hope to have some specific numbers, and an update on the exact timing, either later tonight or Thursday.

Thank you for your patience as we progress through the forecasting process and try to provide you with the most information we can to help you plan for the approaching weather.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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11 am Wednesday 1/10 Update:

Data from the morning computer models have a decent agreement with each other. But are quiet different when comparing to yesterday’s runs. If the data coming out this afternoon does not veer to far from what we are seeing this morning, a better picture will be able to be made soon. A couple days ago the swath of heavy snow could have been as far west as South Bend, Indiana. Or as far east as Akron.

Now, overall latest consensus narrows that down from as far west as I-69 (just west of the border with Indiana) To as far east as Mansfield. The three scenarios I am looking at are,

1) Heavy snow just missing the viewing area to the east. (Mostly Light snow for NW Ohio/SE MI)
2) Heavy snow along and east of I-75. (Light/moderate snow along and west)
3) Heavy snow through most of NW Ohio and SE MI

This is why we still don't have actual forecast snow totals as of yet. Stay tuned with 13abc as we will continue to narrow it down over the next 24 hours.

- Meteorologist Dan Zbozien

11pm Tuesday 1/9 Update:

Two computer model updates just came into the 13abc First Warning Weather Center (the NAM and the GFS), and both models have shifted the upcoming storm to the east. Both models show a very similar path now which is something we should definitely pay attention to and factor into the long-term forecast. Other models still have the storm tracking farther west and would still bring heavy snow to NW Ohio and SE Michigan.

Friday morning's commute looks rough for travel with overnight rain becoming a wintry mix for the morning drive. The mixed precipitation may now last into the early afternoon and then transition to all snow by evening.

The potential is still there on Saturday for some heavy snow and gusty north/northeast winds, but our models are once again not agreeing with each other...making for a very difficult forecast.

Stay with 13abc and 13abc.com over the next several days for updates.

Goodnight.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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7pm Tuesday 1/9 Update:

Our computer models have come into a little better agreement this evening on the potential for heavy snow Friday-Saturday. Computer simulations that were taking the storm to the east have drifted to the west. Computer simulations that were taking the storm to the west have drifted to the east. The computers that had the storm overhead haven't changed much, perhaps just a little drift to the east. With that said, the exact track of this storm system has yet to be determined and we're still going to have to wait a little longer before a clear solution is revealed.

Here's the way it looks as of this evening:
Expect a wintry mix Friday morning, a break during the day and then snow begins to fall in the evening. Snow is likely Friday night into the daytime Saturday. POSSIBLE snow accumulations could top 8", but we're still fine-tuning that specific snow forecast. The band of heavy snow will be around 100-150 miles wide and is very difficult to project its exact location this far in advance.

Please join us at 11pm for the latest on 13abc Action News.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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9:30 AM Tuesday 1/9 Update:

If you are looking for a better image on the potential heavy snow for Friday night, unfortunately not much of a solution has come out of this morning’s new data.

One projection continues the track just to our east, with each of the last three updates actually notching slightly further away from NW Ohio. While another had the track right on top of us last night, has moved back just to our west this morning. Giving the heaviest of the snow in northern Indiana. With such variance and wide placement possibilities from Pittsburgh to South bend, the data doesn’t line-up well enough to mention how much snow will accumulate for your neighborhood. (Just yet).

Please stay with the 13abc First Warning Storm Team, 13abc and 13abc.com for more information over the next several days. We'll provide updates on this link several times a day as new data streams into the 13abc First Warning Weather Center. You can also read the original article below.
- Meteorologist Dan Zbozien

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Have you heard about a huge snowstorm that is expected to hit the area Friday-Saturday? If so, you're not alone...

The 13abc First Warning Storm Team is tracking the POTENTIAL for heavy snow Friday night into Saturday as a very strong storm system tracks through the Ohio Valley, putting NW Ohio and SE Michigan in a favorable location for snow.

The computer models we use to project and predict the future are not in total agreement when it comes to the path of this storm...which will directly impact our snow accumulation forecast. This is why the13abc First Warning Storm Team is holding off on releasing a SPECIFIC snow forecast for this event at this time.

The storm track projections vary from just to our west, to our east and one has the storm right overhead. There's still a ton of data to examine and utilize to produce an accurate and helpful forecast as the storm forms and begins to move our way.

To at least give you an idea of what we're seeing on our computers...there is the possibility of 6" of snow, or more, as we head into the weekend. This is not meant to be a specific forecast, but a starting point that will be fine tuned throughout the week. We will provide more specific numbers once the correlation of the data allows us to do so.

Please prepare for some wintry weather Friday into Saturday (whether it's 1" or 12"). The weather could have a major impact on travel in the local area and much of the Midwest.

Please stay with the 13abc First Warning Storm Team, 13abc and 13abc.com for more information over the next several days. We'll provide updates on this link several times a day as new data streams into the 13abc First Warning Weather Center.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback