Category 3 Hurricane Maria turns out to sea

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TOLEDO, OH (13abc Action News) – 5am Thursday Update:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO LASH THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 68.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Maria is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the
eye of Hurricane Maria will continue to pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic today. Maria should
then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible during the
next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). Punta Cana in the eastern Dominican Republic recently
reported a wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Strong gusty winds are still occurring over portions of
Puerto Rico, but should continue to gradually subside this morning.
Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are continuing across
portions of the warning areas in the Dominican Republic. Hurricane
conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, with tropical storm
conditions beginning in these areas later today.

STORM SURGE: Water levels in Puerto Rico should continue receding
during the next few hours.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total
amounts 35 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches.
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and
Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to
8 inches.
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches.

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are still affecting the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells are
also affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and should begin in the Southeastern Bahamas later
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

____________________________________________________
5pm Wednesday Update:

Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...
...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 67.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NNW OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the U.S. Virgin Islands has been
discontinued.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 67.3 West. Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday night.
A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will continue to move away from
the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this evening. The center will
then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican
Republic tonight and Thursday and then move near the Turks and
Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and Maria could regain major hurricane status by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are still occurring
over portions of Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions are
spreading across the warning areas in the Dominican Republic, and
hurricane conditions should start in the hurricane warning area
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday,
with hurricane conditions starting Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore wind over western portions of Puerto Rico, where the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Puerto Rico...20 to 25 inches, isolated 35 inches
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and
southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches

Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

__________________________________________________________

11am Wednesday Update:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...
...CENTER OF MARIA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of St. Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch for St. Maarten.

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
inland over Puerto Rico near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 66.5
West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h),
and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected through early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Maria will move offshore of the northern coast of Puerto Rico during
the next couple of hours. The center will then pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday
and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to remain a dangerous
major hurricane through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic
this afternoon, with hurricane conditions starting in the hurricane
warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday
evening.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Puerto Rico...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of
the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 5 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and
southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches

Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today.

THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
______________________________________________________
8am Wednesday Update:

Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...EYE OF MARIA LOCATED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 66.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has changed the Hurricane Watch for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 66.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected to continue through today, followed by
a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the eye
of Maria will continue to move across Puerto Rico this morning and
emerge off the northern coast by this afternoon. The center will
then pass just north of the northeast coast of the Dominican
Republic tonight and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and it is forecast to retain
this intensity while it moves across Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). A sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust
to 109 mph (175 km/h) was recently reported at Yabucoa Harbor,
Puerto Rico. A sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) with a gust to
118 mph (190 km/h) was recently reported at Camp Santiago, Puerto
Rico.

A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Yabucoa Harbor recently
reported a water level of 5.3 ft above Mean Higher High Water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic
tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions
are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Thursday in
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, with
tropical storm conditions in this area by early Thursday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of
the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday:

Central Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 2 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 2 to
5 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos...4 to
8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Northern Haiti and southeastern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches.

Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today.

THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

______________________________________________________
11pm Tuesday Update:

Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA
NEARING ST. CROIX...
...CORE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 64.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 64.7 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion is expected to continue through Wednesday
night, followed by a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the eye of Maria will move near or over St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands within the next couple of hours, then
cross Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and pass just north of the
northeast coast of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity could occur before the hurricane reaches Puerto Rico, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico. Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over
the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the area of
hurricane-force winds has increased in size. Hurricane-force winds
now extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 909 mb (26.85 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight. Tropical storm
and hurricane conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and
will spread over Puerto Rico overnight. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic
late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning areas in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible on Thursday in
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 3 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 3 to
6 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U. S. Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

______________________________________________________
6:15pm Tuesday Update:

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND OVER PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL
FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 64.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti
* West of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria. Additional watches and warnings may be required
tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 64.0 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the eye of Maria will move near or over the U. S.
Virgin Islands tonight, cross Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and then
pass just north of the coast of the Dominican Republic Wednesday
night and Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h)
with higher gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico. Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over
the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 916 mb (27.05 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of the
hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands this evening, and
spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are occuring over the
remainder of the Leeward Islands, and are spreading over the Virgin
Islands at this time. Tropical storm conditions should spread over
Puerto Rico during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic
late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning areas in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday.
Hurricane conditions are possible on Thursday in the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U. S. Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued hourly in between these
advisories.

_________________________________________________________

6:15 AM Tuesday Update:

Maria with sustained winds of 160 mph is a very powerful Category 5 Hurricane. Latest movement is WNW at 9 mph, after making landfall last night on the island of Dominica. Maria will remain a Category 5 or a high end Category 4 as it approaches the U.S territory island of Puerto Rico Wednesday morning.

Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight
and Wednesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion

Latest long rang track keeps Maria well off shore and east of Florida's Atlantic coast. But major hurricane status is likely to continue as the eye of the storm passes north of the Bahamas over the weekend.

____________________________________________________
10PM Monday Update: Maria strengthens to a Category 5 hurricane, and has made landfall with the center of the storm.

Here, verbatim, is the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

...MARIA MAKES LANDFALL ON DOMINICA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Radar data from Martinique and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reports indicate that Maria made landfall on Dominica
around 915 PM AST (0115 UTC) with estimated winds of 160 MPH
(260 KM/H).

The next update will be the 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC) complete advisory
package.

SUMMARY OF 935 PM AST...0135 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM SE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES

Hurricane Maria continues to rapidly intensify as expected. The hurricane was 45 miles ENE of Martinique as of the 2:00 p.m. National Hurricane Center advisory. Because Maria is following a similar path and intensity cycle to that of Irma, these Leeward Islands (like Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe) are in danger of seeing their resources and ability to survive turn even lower.

The storm will get closer to the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. John, St. Thomas, and St. Croix late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. By then, the storm could be a Category 4 hurricane.

This is via the Associated Press:

The governor of the U.S. Virgin Islands says people on the island of St. Croix should finish up preparing for Hurricane Maria.

Gov. Kenneth Mapp says the eyewall of the storm is expected to pass 22 miles (35 kilometers) south of the island Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds will extend for about 15 miles. Mapp warned the path of the storm could shift and the island could still be hit with strong gusts and heavy rain.

Mapp says the entire U.S. territory will be under curfew starting 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Maria comes on the heels of Hurricane Irma, which passed directly over the islands of St. Thomas and St. John to the north on Sept. 6.

Puerto Rico has imposed a rationing of basic supplies including water and baby formula as Hurricane Maria approaches as a Category 3 storm.

Officials said Monday that the rationing is necessary to ensure everyone has access to basic items such as batteries, milk, canned foods, flashlights and other things. It does not apply to gasoline or other fuels.

Shelves at many stores were emptying out quickly as people rushed to finalize hurricane preparations. Many posted desperate pleas on social media for help in finding certain items.

Officials said some stores already were imposing their own rationing measures and stressed that more merchandise was scheduled to arrive on Monday to replenish shelves.