Severe Threat Ending This Evening, Flooding Possible (4:30pm Update)

TOLEDO, Ohio (13abc First Warning Weather) - 4:50pm Update - Sunday, November 5th

Severe storms are racing through the eastern half of the area with damaging wind, frequent lightning and very heavy rain. This wave of strong/severe storms will move out of the viewing area by 7pm.

Behind this severe wave, there is additional rain trying to move to the northeast from central Indiana that could clip the area with another 1/2" of rain later tonight. This would put some rain totals over 3". Watch for localized flooding as a flood warning continues through Monday morning.

Stay with 13abc and 13abc.com (along with Facebook and Twitter) for the latest weather information.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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Sunday 8 AM Update - Meteorologist Dan Zbozien

*A Flash Flood Watch is in place from Noon today until 5 am Monday* 1-2" of rain forecasted with 3" to locally 4" possible further south of the turnpike.

Coverage and intensity of storms expected to pick up after 12 PM. Everyone has a chance for severe weather today, with the most activity in the enhanced risk area, which includes Wyandot/Hancock & Putnam Counties, along with far southern Defiance/Henry Counties. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing tornadoes and hail. Strong wind and rain likely. Greatest severe threat 2 - 7 PM.

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Saturday/Sunday midnight update from Ben:

We are still in line for strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon, but first we’ll have to deal with the fog. That’s pretty classic is strong fall warm front advection (movement of air and moisture). If we can get enough of a surge in warming temps, we may be able to break free of fog, but that won’t happen for most. Morning showers arrive near 4:00-6:00 a.m. but that rain will not impact storms, at least not yet. Another line of storms could take away some of the moisture and instability for later storms, along with some of the late-morning warming.

Despite some early-day rain, much of our area remains in an ‘elevated’ risk for severe weather. Simply put, that’s 3/5. That is south of the Turnpike and west of I-75. That DOES NOT MEAN that areas outside of that box won’t get severe weather. The rest of us are in the slight risk box. Of course the Storm Team will be watching the entire coverage area. We normally don’t get that high of a severe weather risk during the fall. This is pretty reminiscent of the 2013 late November outbreak of severe storms. Like that night, tornadoes are a risk we’ll need to watch for. Even if we don’t have twisters, the ingredients are there for normal severe weather. That means straight line winds, some smaller hail, and lots of heavy rain (rain is not a factor in severe weather, but still, it’s important).

From impacts to timing: One model has strong storms popping as soon at 1:00 p.m., but Predictor has the storm threat starting up in Hillsdale County at about 2:00 p.m. The storms will get closer to Toledo by about 4:00, with continued rain for a couple of hours. Storms continue towards Findlay, Tiffin, Port Clinton, etc. closer to 7:00. The main storm threat should be about done by 8:00 p.m.

Friday, 11/3 (6:45pm update):

Severe weather is still possible Sunday.

Our latest weather maps now show showers and storms developing a few hours earlier on Sunday. Expect the chance of rain to now begin closer to noon with several rounds of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening.

The threats have not changed...wind, hail, heavy rain and tornadoes are all still possible through Sunday night with clearing weather arriving after midnight.

Stay tuned tonight and over the weekend for more information.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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Friday, 11/3 (6:45am update):

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western half of the area under an Enhanced Risk for severe weather for Sunday evening. The rest of the area is under a Slight Risk. It is uncertain how much instability will develop in our area, but the wind shear is expected to be very high Sunday evening as a warm front may stall across area. That wind shear could lead to rotating thunderstorms and a chance for damaging winds, tornadoes, and small hail. The severe weather threat and storm timeline will likely adjust a little this weekend, but right now it looks like our best chance for severe weather would be after 5pm Sunday evening. Heavy rain could linger into the early morning hours on Monday.

Please stay tuned to 13abc and keep checking 13abc.com for the latest information.

-Meteorologist Ross Ellet
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Thursday, 11/2 (6:45pm update)

***The graphic shows the low-level rotation at 10pm Sunday***

No big changes to our forecast for Sunday evening. If anything, the chance of rotating thunderstorms has nudged up just a bit. We'll be very close to a warm front Sunday evening...that, combined with an approaching cold front will create a ton of "shear" (rotation or twisting) in the atmosphere.

Right now, the highest chance of any severe weather will roll through between 6pm-12am Sunday evening.

Our main threats are funnel clouds/tornadoes and heavy rain.

As mentioned before, we're still a few days away from this event. Please stay tuned to 13abc and keep checking 13abc.com for the latest information.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback
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Thursday, November 2nd (6:30am update):

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the severe weather risk for Sunday evening. Now most of Indiana, Ohio, and southern Michigan are included in the risk area. The SPC has highlighted areas west of I-75 as being the most probable location for severe weather. At this time, computer models suggest damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes are all possible. Heavy rain could also occur as the cold front moves into the area late Sunday evening.

It is uncertain if any sunshine will develop Sunday morning and afternoon. Sunshine would mean the severe weather threat could climb higher. However, one weather map this morning suggests that morning and afternoon showers could develop. If that happens, the Sunday evening severe weather threat would drop. The 13abc Storm Team will keep you updated in the days ahead as the storm system gets closer.

-Meteorologist Ross Ellet
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Wednesday, November 1st: 6:30pm

There is a chance of severe weather Sunday evening/Sunday night. No severe weather is expected between now and then.

A few of our computer models are showing atmospheric conditions that are favorable for the development of thunderstorms that may contain hail, gusty winds and even an isolated funnel cloud or tornado. The numerous models we use are not in complete agreement with each other, so we still have plenty of forecasting to do as we get closer and closer to Sunday.

It's only Wednesday...so for now, just keep in mind that storms are expected to round out the upcoming weekend and a few storms may become strong or severe.

Please stay tuned to 13abc and frequently check 13abc.com for updates over the next several days as the details for Sunday become more clear when it comes to our severe threat.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback