(AP) It's all about Ohio - again.
The economy has improved
here, and so has President Barack Obama's standing, putting pressure on
Republican Mitt Romney in a state critical to his presidential hopes.
No Republican has won the
White House without winning Ohio, and Romney hopes to catch Obama here
by slashing at his jobs record in working-class regions.
"America doesn't have to
have the long face it has had under this president," the Republican
shouted Monday to a cheering audience in hard-scrabble Mansfield, just
weeks after Obama visited. "We can get America rolling again, growing
again."
In a sign of the state's
importance, hardly a week goes without the candidates appearing in Ohio.
Same goes for their running mates; Republican Paul Ryan was campaigning
in the Appalachian southeast Wednesday, following a similar weekend
trip by Vice President Joe Biden, who is to return to the state
Wednesday.
Less than two months from
Election Day, both parties say their internal campaign polling shows
Obama with a narrow lead in Ohio, a Midwestern state that offers 18
Electoral College votes and has played an important role in determining
every recent White House race.
Numbers tell the story of
the high stakes and, perhaps, show why Obama has been able to maintain
an edge - and why Romney remains within striking distance.
The candidates and
supportive outside groups have spent a stunning $112 million on TV
advertising in the state - one-sixth the total spent nationwide. And
Obama and groups that support him have been outspending Romney and
Republican-leaning independent groups here all summer, outpacing the GOP
$2 million to $1 million last week alone. That's despite Romney having
tapped into his general election bank account last week to boost his ads
here.
All year, the race here has
been close. A Quinnipiac University poll in April after Romney locked
up the Republican nomination showed a 1-point race among registered
voters in the state. But two recent polls - Quinnipiac/CBS/New York
Times in August and July - showed Obama up 6 percentage points among
likely voters, and reaching 50 percent, a key marker for an endangered
incumbent.
Both Republicans and Democrats say internal surveys show it tighter now, with Obama leading by about 3 percentage points.
Still, Democrats are almost
giddy that Obama has been able to show strength in this manufacturing
state, which suffered during the recession but has seen its unemployment
rate fall from 7.7 percent in January to 7.2 percent in July.
While Obama stayed in
Washington on Monday, the president's team also reveled in the fact that
he edged Romney in monthly fundraising - $114 million vs. $111 million -
for the first time in three months, as well as in national opinion
surveys that showed the Democrat's standing improving a bit after his
national nominating convention in Charlotte, N.C., last week.
In Ohio, Romney looked to
take advantage of Obama's absence, blistering the president over deep
defense cuts scheduled as part of a deficit-reduction proposal. Those
possible cuts mean the city would lose its 179th Air National Guard
unit, which would cost hundreds of jobs. That's on top of a GM plant
that closed in nearby Ontario, Ohio, two years ago.
"It will be bad for
employment if it goes forward. It will also be bad for our national
security," Romney said, promising to block such cuts as president.
Here and elsewhere, Obama
is working to spread a message of economic progress, despite a national
unemployment rate stuck above 8 percent.
In Toledo last week, the
president argued that his decision to bail out the U.S. auto industry in
neighboring Michigan has fueled a manufacturing turnaround in the
region. GM recently announced a $200 million expansion of its Lordstown,
Ohio, plant, where the company's best-selling Chevrolet Cruze is made.
It's in this Midwest region
where Obama reminds audiences that Romney wrote a Wall Street Journal
opinion piece in 2008 suggesting carmakers declare bankruptcy and
restructure. Although that's what happened under the Obama's
administration, the Romney piece's headline, "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt,"
has been a bumper-sticker line for the Obama campaign.
"Do the folks in Ohio
really think that Gov. Romney, with his views on outsourcing, with his
views on General Motors and Chrysler and beyond that, do they honestly
believe that if he had been president the last four years that today
that there would be today 115,000 auto jobs in Ohio?" Biden said last
weekend in Zanesville, 55 miles east of Columbus.
Countering, Romney tries to
stoke doubt about the president's economic competence, and he
criticizes Obama on energy, specifically the administration's
regulations on coal mining and oil and gas drilling. Those issues
resonate in southern Ohio.
It is all part of a
two-fold Ohio strategy by Romney: suppress Obama's edge in places like
swing-voting northern and central Ohio while dispatching Ryan, from
working-class Janesville, Wis., to widen the GOP ticket's edge in towns
along the Ohio River.
Romney seems to have an opening.
"The only driver here is
the economy, and we've seen what Barack Obama has to offer," said Andrew
Kvochick, a 30-year-old lawyer from Lexington who voted for Obama in
2008. "We'd like to see what Mitt Romney has to offer."
Kvochick was among more than 1,500 at a rally Romney headlined at PR Machineworks in Mansfield.
Winning Ohio's big cache of
18 electoral votes is critical for Romney, who has fewer state-by-state
paths to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory than Obama does. If
Romney loses here, he would need to win several other states to make up
the difference.
In Ohio, Obama beat John
McCain 52 percent to 47 percent four years ago, primarily by increasing
support among black voters, white college graduates and young people.
This year, Romney leads nationally among white voters without college
degrees, and he's targeting them heavily across the Midwest, including
in Ohio, to counter Obama's advantages among minorities and whites with
more formal education.
Much can change between now and Nov. 6.
In a close race, the
campaigns' get-out-the-vote operations could be worth a few percentage
points - and even Republicans acknowledge that Obama's organization is
superior given that it never really went away after his 2008 victory.
Since then, aides have kept in touch with voters and have kept track of
the president's strongest supporters and weakest allies. Obama's data
analysts have dug into those supporters' habits - magazine
subscriptions, television viewing habits, pet ownership - to pinpoint
what messages best reach them to re-invigorate backers who worked for
Obama four years ago but may be less enthusiastic this year.
Although he still lags
Obama in this area, Romney is much better positioned here than McCain
was, with many times more people and offices than the Arizona senator
had at this point in the race four years ago. And the GOP is paying
closer attention to getting people to vote early in a state where
election officials anticipate the number of early votes to grow to as
many as a third of ballots.
Early voting here starts
Oct. 2. Obama won among those who voted before Election Day four years
ago but Romney's team is bullish on its chances of winning among those
voters this year.