Chances for a powerful winter El Nino fade - 13abc.com Toledo (OH) News, Weather and Sports

Chances for a powerful winter El Nino fade

Posted: Updated:
TOLEDO, Ohio -

This year's winter forecast just got a bit more complicated. It turns out the 2012-13 El Nino, that was supposed to snatch this winter's headlines, might be a no show.

Scientists have been hard at work all summer long looking over data from the Equatorial Pacific region of the globe. The year started with a powerful La Nina that was dominating the weather patterns around the globe by shifting the position of the jet stream. Global computer models forecasted the La Nina (cool ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific) would fall apart and an El Nino (warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific) would replace it by this coming winter. The computer simulations got the first part right, the La Nina did fall apart fast in early summer, but the El Nino has been extremely slow in developing and now it is possible it won't develop at all. If it does, it will be very weak or fall apart by late winter putting us in a neutral pattern (near average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific).

Without either an El Nino or La Nina, the overall weather patterns are more likely to fluctuate up and down week to week and month to month. The arctic sea ice is now building again with the return of cold air in the polar regions, however the sea ice is still near the October record low which was set in 2007. Recent research has shown that this could promote more blocking in winter's weather patterns which could mean more extreme ups and downs also.

In the past 60 years, there have been 8 winter seasons that have had similar situations. During those 8 years, precipitation and snowfall were around average while temperatures were about 2 degrees below normal in northwest Ohio. Long range computer models are showing roughly average precipitation and temperatures from December 2012 through February 2013 as well.

This doesn't mean the winter will be average across the board. It means smaller scale details will determine the winter's patterns. At this point it is to early to understand how that will play out in the months to come.

  • LocalMore>>

  • Perkins K9 leads Troopers to 188 bindles of heroin

    Perkins K9 leads Troopers to 188 bindles of heroin

    Friday, August 1 2014 7:45 AM EDT2014-08-01 11:45:01 GMT
    Nearly 200 packets of heroin are off the streets thanks to a K9 officer from Perkins Township. The state highway patrol called for the assistance of Officer "Uganda" during a recent traffic stop. Uganda was able to sniff out 188 bindles of heroin. They were all inside of a vehicle on the turnpike near U.S. 250. Perkins Township police posted this pictures to Facebook including a picture of Officer Uganda. No word yet on who troopers arrested, but Perkins Police, who assisted with the bust, po...
    Nearly 200 packets of heroin are off the streets thanks to a K9 officer from Perkins Township. The state highway patrol called for the assistance of Officer "Uganda" during a recent traffic stop. Uganda was able to sniff out 188 bindles of heroin. They were all inside of a vehicle on the turnpike near U.S. 250. Perkins Township police posted this pictures to Facebook including a picture of Officer Uganda. No word yet on who troopers arrested, but Perkins Police, who assisted with the bust, po...
  • 92.5 KISS FM host heading to Tulsa, OK

    92.5 KISS FM host heading to Tulsa, OK

    Friday, August 1 2014 7:32 AM EDT2014-08-01 11:32:58 GMT
    A local radio D.J. and morning show host has a new gig and he's leaving town. Sid Kelly has been on the air at 92.5 KISS FM for the past three years. He took over for Andrew Z. Two months ago, Clear Channel did not renew Kelly's contract. He's now preparing for a new gig in Tulsa, Oklahoma. You'll be able to hear him online, on K-Hits, starting Monday, August 11. Kelly broke the news to his followers on Facebook and says he's going to miss Toledo. The 39-year-old went to Ohio State and he's c...
    A local radio D.J. and morning show host has a new gig and he's leaving town. Sid Kelly has been on the air at 92.5 KISS FM for the past three years. He took over for Andrew Z. Two months ago, Clear Channel did not renew Kelly's contract. He's now preparing for a new gig in Tulsa, Oklahoma. You'll be able to hear him online, on K-Hits, starting Monday, August 11. Kelly broke the news to his followers on Facebook and says he's going to miss Toledo. The 39-year-old went to Ohio State and he's c...
  • Clarion slowly coming down as "At Home" opens next door

    Clarion slowly coming down as "At Home" opens next door

    Friday, August 1 2014 7:08 AM EDT2014-08-01 11:08:46 GMT
    The city of Toledo has big plans for the Reynolds Road corridor, and it's shelling out big bucks. Just last week, the city agreed to buy the site of the former Southwyck mall for $3M. That's if it can land a developer within 120 days. The designs call for a corporate headquarters. Southwyck closed in 2008. So did the Clarion hotel next door. The K-Mart next to that also pulled out, but today there's a welcome sign for some: A "now open" sign. It's on the front of the former K-Mart, showing of...
    The city of Toledo has big plans for the Reynolds Road corridor, and it's shelling out big bucks. Just last week, the city agreed to buy the site of the former Southwyck mall for $3M. That's if it can land a developer within 120 days. The designs call for a corporate headquarters. Southwyck closed in 2008. So did the Clarion hotel next door. The K-Mart next to that also pulled out, but today there's a welcome sign for some: A "now open" sign. It's on the front of the former K-Mart, showing of...
  • Top StoriesMore>>

  • Breaking News

    Semi crashes into Tony Packo's

    Semi crashes into Tony Packo's

    Friday, August 1 2014 9:40 AM EDT2014-08-01 13:40:57 GMT
    A semi-truck crashed into Tony Packo's on Front Street in East Toledo.Toledo Police are on the scene and are urging motorists to avoid the Front and Consaul area. We'll have more information as it becomes available from our crews on the scene.
    A semi-truck crashed into Tony Packo's on Front Street in East Toledo.Toledo Police are on the scene and are urging motorists to avoid the Front and Consaul area. We'll have more information as it becomes available from our crews on the scene.
  • Chrysler reports July sales best since 2005

    Chrysler reports July sales best since 2005

    Friday, August 1 2014 9:53 AM EDT2014-08-01 13:53:05 GMT
    August 1, 2014 , Auburn Hills, Mich. - Chrysler Group LLC today reported U.S. sales of 167,667 units, a 20 percent increase compared with sales in July 2013 (140,102 units), and the group’s best July sales since 2005.The Chrysler, Jeep®, Dodge, Ram Truck and FIAT brands each posted year-over-year sales gains in July compared with the same month a year ago. The Jeep brand’s 41 percent increase was the largest sales gain of any Chrysler Group brand during July and its best ever July sales. Chry...
    August 1, 2014 , Auburn Hills, Mich. - Chrysler Group LLC today reported U.S. sales of 167,667 units, a 20 percent increase compared with sales in July 2013 (140,102 units), and the group’s best July sales since 2005.The Chrysler, Jeep®, Dodge, Ram Truck and FIAT brands each posted year-over-year sales gains in July compared with the same month a year ago. The Jeep brand’s 41 percent increase was the largest sales gain of any Chrysler Group brand during July and its best ever July sales. Chry...
  • Perkins K9 leads Troopers to 188 bindles of heroin

    Perkins K9 leads Troopers to 188 bindles of heroin

    Friday, August 1 2014 7:45 AM EDT2014-08-01 11:45:01 GMT
    Nearly 200 packets of heroin are off the streets thanks to a K9 officer from Perkins Township. The state highway patrol called for the assistance of Officer "Uganda" during a recent traffic stop. Uganda was able to sniff out 188 bindles of heroin. They were all inside of a vehicle on the turnpike near U.S. 250. Perkins Township police posted this pictures to Facebook including a picture of Officer Uganda. No word yet on who troopers arrested, but Perkins Police, who assisted with the bust, po...
    Nearly 200 packets of heroin are off the streets thanks to a K9 officer from Perkins Township. The state highway patrol called for the assistance of Officer "Uganda" during a recent traffic stop. Uganda was able to sniff out 188 bindles of heroin. They were all inside of a vehicle on the turnpike near U.S. 250. Perkins Township police posted this pictures to Facebook including a picture of Officer Uganda. No word yet on who troopers arrested, but Perkins Police, who assisted with the bust, po...

Area Events Calendar

See It, Shoot It, Send It!