This year's winter forecast just got a bit more complicated. It turns out the 2012-13 El Nino, that was supposed to snatch this winter's headlines, might be a no show.
Scientists have been hard at work all summer long looking over data from the Equatorial Pacific region of the globe. The year started with a powerful La Nina that was dominating the weather patterns around the globe by shifting the position of the jet stream. Global computer models forecasted the La Nina (cool ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific) would fall apart and an El Nino (warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific) would replace it by this coming winter. The computer simulations got the first part right, the La Nina did fall apart fast in early summer, but the El Nino has been extremely slow in developing and now it is possible it won't develop at all. If it does, it will be very weak or fall apart by late winter putting us in a neutral pattern (near average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific).
Without either an El Nino or La Nina, the overall weather patterns are more likely to fluctuate up and down week to week and month to month. The arctic sea ice is now building again with the return of cold air in the polar regions, however the sea ice is still near the October record low which was set in 2007. Recent research has shown that this could promote more blocking in winter's weather patterns which could mean more extreme ups and downs also.
In the past 60 years, there have been 8 winter seasons that have had similar situations. During those 8 years, precipitation and snowfall were around average while temperatures were about 2 degrees below normal in northwest Ohio. Long range computer models are showing roughly average precipitation and temperatures from December 2012 through February 2013 as well.
This doesn't mean the winter will be average across the board. It means smaller scale details will determine the winter's patterns. At this point it is to early to understand how that will play out in the months to come.
Saturday, May 18 2013 7:57 PM EDT2013-05-18 23:57:12 GMT
While the most intense of the severe weather will be in the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, it is possible that we could see some severe thunderstorms, as early as Monday night, especially west of the Toledo metro area.
While the most intense of the severe weather will be in the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, it is possible that we could see some severe thunderstorms, as early as Monday night, especially west of the Toledo metro area.
Saturday, May 18 2013 9:29 AM EDT2013-05-18 13:29:54 GMT
Up to this point, 2013 has been one of the calmest severe weather seasons on record. However, a slow moving strong storm system is moving through the central parts of the country this weekend. That storm
A severe weather outbreak is expected to bring tornadoes, wind and hail in the plains this weekend.
Thursday, May 16 2013 6:02 PM EDT2013-05-16 22:02:10 GMT
Folks were scratching their heads in southern Minnesota this week. After a bizarre May snow a few weeks ago, the cold weather has persisted with several frosty mornings. The week started off with Sunday
Temperatures jumped 70 degrees in just 2 days in southern Minnesota. The area went from frost to a record 100 degrees on Tuesday.
Wednesday, May 15 2013 5:47 PM EDT2013-05-15 21:47:28 GMT
Tens of thousands of people flock to northwest Ohio every spring for the annual bird migration, but behind the scenes these birds are being studied in large numbers. Along the lakeshore in the woods
Tens of thousands of people flock to northwest Ohio every spring for the annual bird migration, but behind the scenes these birds are being studied in large numbers.
Saturday, May 18 2013 10:50 PM EDT2013-05-19 02:50:34 GMT
Three suspects are still on the loose after an-early morning home invasion and murder in Waterville Township and investigators say the death of 34-year-old James Safadi was not a random act of violence.
Investigators say the home invasion death of 34-year-old James Safadi in Waterville was not a random act of violence. They believe the local business owner was targeted.
Saturday, May 18 2013 9:01 PM EDT2013-05-19 01:01:59 GMT
A team that played football for years has reunited to pay tribute to their coach who died from ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig's Disease.It was the fifth year for the Dave Calabrese Football Blitz, but
It was the fifth year for the Dave Calabrese Football Blitz, but the first without Calabrese, who died just days ago after a battle with ALS.
Saturday, May 18 2013 7:57 PM EDT2013-05-18 23:57:12 GMT
While the most intense of the severe weather will be in the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, it is possible that we could see some severe thunderstorms, as early as Monday night, especially west of the Toledo metro area.
While the most intense of the severe weather will be in the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, it is possible that we could see some severe thunderstorms, as early as Monday night, especially west of the Toledo metro area.
Saturday, May 18 2013 6:45 PM EDT2013-05-18 22:45:41 GMT
Nearly 100 Antique automobiles were on display Saturday in Archbold at the annual antique car gathering at Sauder Village.Car collectors showcased their vintage vehicles and talked about these unique cars.Vistors
Nearly 100 Antique automobiles were on display Saturday in Archbold at the annual antique car gathering at Sauder Village.
Saturday, May 18 2013 6:37 PM EDT2013-05-18 22:37:55 GMT
Students at Lourdes University received their diplomas Saturday at a graduation ceremony.Sister Mary Soro-Siak and Owens-Illinois CEO Albert Stroucken received honorary doctoral degrees.Strouken also delivered
Students at Lourdes University received their diplomas Saturday at a graduation ceremony.
Saturday, May 18 2013 10:50 PM EDT2013-05-19 02:50:34 GMT
Three suspects are still on the loose after an-early morning home invasion and murder in Waterville Township and investigators say the death of 34-year-old James Safadi was not a random act of violence.
Investigators say the home invasion death of 34-year-old James Safadi in Waterville was not a random act of violence. They believe the local business owner was targeted.
Saturday, May 18 2013 9:52 PM EDT2013-05-19 01:52:31 GMT
LEXINGTON, Mich. (AP) - Carol Connell remembers well the gift she gave Sara Ylen, a friend seemingly forced to bear too much misery. Ylen, a Michigan mother of two young boys, said she was battling cancer
A Michigan mom who claimed to be battling cancer and a rape survior is being accused of fraud and her community is reeling.
Saturday, May 18 2013 9:11 PM EDT2013-05-19 01:11:00 GMT
DAMASCUS, Va. (AP) - Witnesses in southwestern Virginia say a car has driven into a crowd at a festival parade. Several people appeared to be hurt, but the nature of their injuries wasn't immediately
An elderly driver plowed into dozens of hikers marching in a Saturday parade in a small Virginia mountain town.
Saturday, May 18 2013 9:01 PM EDT2013-05-19 01:01:59 GMT
A team that played football for years has reunited to pay tribute to their coach who died from ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig's Disease.It was the fifth year for the Dave Calabrese Football Blitz, but
It was the fifth year for the Dave Calabrese Football Blitz, but the first without Calabrese, who died just days ago after a battle with ALS.
Saturday, May 18 2013 7:57 PM EDT2013-05-18 23:57:12 GMT
While the most intense of the severe weather will be in the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, it is possible that we could see some severe thunderstorms, as early as Monday night, especially west of the Toledo metro area.
While the most intense of the severe weather will be in the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, it is possible that we could see some severe thunderstorms, as early as Monday night, especially west of the Toledo metro area.
Saturday, May 18 2013 6:24 PM EDT2013-05-18 22:24:10 GMT
A Toledo man is accused of animal cruelty after he hit his pit bull with 2 by 4.Police say Donnie Britton was trying to break up a fight between two dogs by hitting them with a board. Both dogs were injured
A Toledo man is accused of animal cruelty after he hit his pit bull with 2 by 4.
Saturday, May 18 2013 5:54 PM EDT2013-05-18 21:54:20 GMT
Verizon Wireless customers have been experiencing voice and data issues throughout the day on Saturday in Ohio.Customers in the Sandusky, Akron and Canton areas have seen an increased in dropped calls
Verizon Wireless customers have been experiencing voice and data issues throughout the day on Saturday in Ohio.
Saturday, May 18 2013 9:25 PM EDT2013-05-19 01:25:59 GMT
UNIONDALE, N.Y. (AP) - A wanted man with a criminal history dating back nearly 15 years was identified by police Saturday as the masked home invader involved in the death of a Hofstra University student
A wanted man with a criminal history dating back nearly 15 years was identified by police Saturday as the masked home invader involved in the death of a Hofstra University student early Friday morning.
Saturday, May 18 2013 8:52 PM EDT2013-05-19 00:52:10 GMT
DETROIT (AP) - A tiny insect is threatening Michigan's fruit and vegetable crops. The brown marmorated stink bug's presence in Michigan has growers and agriculture experts concerned because there are
A tiny insect is threatening Michigan's fruit and vegetable crops. The brown marmorated stink bug's presence in Michigan has growers and agriculture experts concerned.
Saturday, May 18 2013 8:42 PM EDT2013-05-19 00:42:53 GMT
CLEVELAND (AP) - Some of the Amish sentenced in beard-cutting attacks on fellow Amish in Ohio are upset with federal prison education requirements. The U.S. Bureau of Prisons has required some to study
Some of the Amish sentenced in beard-cutting attacks on fellow Amish in Ohio are upset with federal prison education requirements.
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