How a snow forecast gets made - 13abc.com Toledo (OH) News, Weather and Sports

How a snow forecast gets made

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We all know the expression about "how sausage gets made."  In many ways, a true snow forecast is much the same and the process is part science, part art and lots of experience with overall snow forecasting. 

There's the timing, placement, moisture amounts and wind to consider.  There are also lots of technical things like the critical thickness, 540 thickness, 850 temperatures, delta T, overrunning, etc.  The list goes on and on and it's a list that needs to be thought out for each location on our map.  Throw in the fact that the upper air part of the storm (the first part) is just arriving to the Bay Area of California and it adds to the difficulty.  That's why we typically wait until closer to the storm's arrival to make a detailed forecast.  Other beautiful maps you may have seen are just pure plots of total moisture over a 12-day timeframe.  With that said, we collected some early pure moisture (what we call QPF) totals from two of our more reliable tools.  These span several towns and they were all calculated.

New computer data comes out this afternoon and that should help things come into more agreement.  You'll see our first draft later today.

European:

Toledo Express: 0.59"

Findlay: 0.66"

Bucryus: 0.79"

Ft. Wayne: 0.63"

Hillsdale: 0.43"

Detroit: 0.49"

Sandusky: 0.81"

Wauseon: 0.65"

Lima: 0.81"

GFS:

Toledo Express: 0.28"

Toledo Suburban: 0.27"

Findlay: 0.39"

Defiance: 0.26"

Lima: 0.41"

Marion: 0.51"

Ft. Wayne: 0.41"

Monroe: 0.21"

Adrian: 0.21"

 

These are from the same time and yet the European is more than double the amount for most towns. We've attached pictures to show you how that would stack up on our regional map.

 

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