Breakdown of mid-week storm - 13abc.com Toledo (OH) News, Weather and Sports

Breakdown of mid-week storm

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We're still on track for another midweek storm, this time from late Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon.  This storm is just landing on the Pacific and is thousands of miles away (which means you can take any long-range forecasts you may have seen with a grain of salt). 

Every tool at our disposal has this storm coming up the Ohio River Valley but they differ on timing, temperature, storm size, precip type and amount.  That's basically every variable that makes a difference.  Lets look at the pure moisture.  The now-famous European computer model is MUCH heavier this time while the GFS is much lighter.

Here is the European model:

Toledo: 0.52"

Lima: 0.67"

Findlay: 0.71"

Fort Wayne: 0.68"

Sandusky: 0.63"

Wauseon: 0.57"

One thing to note: the Euro starts all of this arm of the storm out as cold rain.  That would take away from heavier snowfall. 

Here's the GFS:

Toledo: 0.15"

Findlay: 0.28"

Monroe: 0.12"

Adrian: 0.14"

Paulding: 0.18"

Wauseon: 0.15"

Port Clinton: 0.19"

South Toledo: 0.20"

Lima: 0.35"

If this storm wobbles north, even by a few miles, our moisture and snowfall totals would both go up.  If the storm heads south (opposite direction), we'd be looking at a glancing blow and a more minor storm. 

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