Details on Wednesday storm - 13abc.com Toledo (OH) News, Weather and Sports

Details on Wednesday storm

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You've likely heard by now that a big March storm is headed our way, up the Ohio Valley, late Tuesday night through Wednesday. 

The National Weather Service offices have jointly issued a Winter Storm Warning for Wednesday.  It doesn't become effective until Wednesday but rain will start before that.  The Warning covers the entire viewing area but the start times differ, based upon where you live.

All of our computer models are pretty heavy-handed with moisture.  Let's look at some pure numbers behind the tools we use.  Keep in mind that the start of the storm will likely be rain, so this isn't all snow.  Still, 4-8" of snow should be widespread in our area, judging from this far outlook.  The snow map included is a draft and will change as the storm nears.

*These numbers reflect Monday night computer models*

Here is the American computer model (GFS) :

B.G./South Toledo: 0.97"

Toledo: 0.83"

Monroe: 0.70"

Adrian: 0.67"

Findlay: 1.01"

Defiance: 0.82"

Lima: 0.96"

That's a lot of moisture and it's way up from yesterday.  Another tool has between 0.6-1.0" of plain moisture potential.  That won't all be snow, to reiterate.  The European model has about 0.5-0.8" of the same plain moisture potential.  Again, that's heavy but this tool has consistently laid that out for days now. 

This West Coast storm will be joining with more energy and moisture coming out of the Deep South.  Where and how they combine determines a lot.  Unfortunately, that won't happen for awhile.  But when it does, that will really intensify the storm into something you're more used to seeing.  That could pop the storm north or south, slow it down or speed it up. 

If it heads north, we're looking at heavy rain/snow mix.  There would be less snow but more mess, with near-freezing temperatures.  If it wiggles south, that would make us colder and bring us less total snow.  The worst of the snow will be right in the Wednesday a.m. commute.  Travel will probably be rough. 

One of our concerns is the threat of whiteout conditions on the western Lake Erie shore.  Winds will become stronger late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Gusts near 40 mph are possible with the sustained winds just below that.  There is a Gale Watch for our Michigan lakeshore, so if you know people ice fishing, pass word along. 

The storm will be mostly done with by 2:00 p.m. Wednesday but straggling snow showers will likely pop up behind this. 

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