Tracking Wednesday's storms - 13abc.com Toledo (OH) News, Weather and Sports

Tracking Wednesday's storms

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The First Warning Forecast Center team is tracking a couple of big weather stories in the short-term this week. The first story is a strong cold front. There’s plenty of sun and warmth outside right now, with a low rain chance today. The sun will be in and out today but a pleasant cool-down is in the forecast for tomorrow. Like we’ve said since before this past weekend, there will be both sun and a chance of strong storms Wednesday.
A strong-to-severe group or cluster of thunderstorms will head our way. As of this writing (just before noon on Tuesday morning), the FAR southern edge of our area is in a “slight risk” for severe weather. A group called the Storm Prediction Center issues these risk maps and they’re one tool we use. The “slight risk” means that the chance of severe storms is well elevated above a typical late-spring day. It’s not the highest level, but you should stay weather aware.
Timing: The pre-existing complex of stormy weather will move in from the west , basically following the Turnpike at first. Our peak chance is late morning to mid-afternoon, with some of this lingering in our eastern counties a touch later. Most of our tools are in agreement on timing, with one called the NAM being a bit slower.  Predictor is much faster, though, focusing more on late-morning showers. 
Threats: With good sunshine early tomorrow allowing a warming-trend (but not as warm as the past few days), we’ll have good energy in place. There’s also plenty of Gulf moisture helping to fuel storms. That will be noticeable by early afternoon, when south winds kick in ahead of the storms. That wind direction will funnel in extra moisture. Simply put, that means a humid afternoon.
Because of the nature of this storm type, we’re most concerned about wind. We are keeping very close ties on other factors that could create large hail or lead to isolated tornadoes.

We could also see heavy rains south, if Predictor By The Hour has it right.  That would keep temperatures locked into the 60s, with more of a Lake Erie breeze. 
It’s not a perfect setup for severe weather. The best chance for that is just to our south. Still, things could still shift north over the next day, so stay up-to-date on the forecast.
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