Pollsters lose big in 2020

Published: Nov. 4, 2020 at 6:39 PM EST
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TOLEDO, Ohio (WTVG) - President Trump held onto Ohio on Tuesday night, clinching the states all-important 18 electoral votes. That was a surprise for pollsters who had predicted a very close race in the state.

So that leaves many people asking what happened?

Bowling Green State Professor and 13abc political analyst Dr. Melissa Miller Ph.D., says the formula did not pan out. “After the 2016 poll got it so wrong. The reputable polling firms realized that they had under-represented non-college-educated whites in their samples.”

Dr. Miller says, that group was added into polling at higher levels leading up to this election, but not enough. “It’s not that easy for pollsters to predict the exact composition of the electorate and know exactly what percentage the electorate will be for college-educated whites, non-college-educated whites, black women, Hispanic men, etc.”

This year, Dr. Miller says pollsters were off again, not anticipating the turn-out in Ohio for Trump that actually transpired, which is critical for a Trump win. “For Donald Trump, Ohio was a must-win state, he simply wouldn’t be in it any longer as the final votes are counted without the state of Ohio.”

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