Your 13abc First Warning Winter Outlook

TOLEDO, Ohio (WTVG) - November 20, 2017 6pm:

The official 13abc First Warning Storm Team Winter Outlook has been released. A weak to moderate La Nina is expected this year. The upcoming winter, as a whole, is looking a little colder than normal and a little snowier than normal.

The month will begin a bit chilly with normal amounts of precipitation for the entire month. There are some signs that the month may end on the warm side which could lower our chances of a White Christmas. Much of the precipitation that falls could be rain or a mix of rain and snow.

The month will begin on the warm side, but slowly transition to a colder trend the second half of the month. Precipitation amounts should come in near normal with most of what falls in the form of snow (or some type of frozen precipitation).

February may the most brutal month of the upcoming season. There are multiple signs pointing toward a colder than normal and snowier than normal month. Expect some chunks of arctic air to slide into the eastern half of the USA and storm systems to utilize the chilly air to make mainly snow.

This winter doesn't have the look of a record breaking year, but compared to last winter, it may seem more harsh than normal.

Be sure to stay with the entire 13abc First Warning Storm Team all season long for the latest weather information and most accurate forecasts.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback


The 13abc First Warning Weather Team has been hard at work the last several weeks digging into the very challenging task of predicting the weather for the upcoming winter.

There are a ton of variables, clues and trends to examine to come up with an accurate seasonal outlook. Even the occasional gut feeling and quick look at a squirrel can provide useful information about what might happen weather wise over the next 3 months.

Here's a few of the items the 13abc First Warning Storm Team looks at while compiling the most accurate winter outlook in Northwest Ohio:

Long Range Computer Models and Ensembles
Analogs Showing Similar Set-Ups From Previous Years
El Nino Southern Oscillation (La Nina)
Madden/Julian Oscillation
Arctic Oscillation
North Atlantic Oscillation
Pacific/North American Pattern
Antarctic Oscillation
Weather Folklore (Wolly Bear Worms, Acorns, Fall Colors, Squirrel Size, etc.)

Please join us Monday at 6pm for the release of the Official 13abc Winter Forecast live on the ice at the Huntington Center in Downtown Toledo. I'll give you a little hint about the may actually use your shovel/snow blower this year...

Again, watch 13abc Action News on Monday, November 20th at 6pm for a look at what to expect this winter.

-Chief Meteorologist Jay Berschback